Notes: Foreign arrivals to China in the first half of 2023 were only 4% of the data for the same period in 2019, before the outbreak.
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The data behind China’s opening up of visa-free access to China for six countries is thought-provoking!
Yesterday（2023-11-24）, the foreign ministers of China and France presided over the “sixth meeting of the Sino-French high-level civilian exchange mechanism”.
At the meeting, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi announced a 15-day visa-free policy for short-term French personnel to China, the French Foreign Minister even “nodded to thank” on the Chinese and French current affairs hot search.
In fact, this is not just a “policy benefit” for France.
China’s “15-day visa-free” policy for France was announced at the venue at the same time that a spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced our “15-day visa-free” policy for France, Germany, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, Malaysia and six other countries.
This expansion of the scope of visa-free countries is a “bold reform” of China’s foreign policy, and is therefore announced as a “trial policy” that will be effective from December 1 of this year to November 30 of next year. It will be valid from December 1 this year to November 30 next year.
Policy trial cycle of a whole year, when the time will be based on the implementation of this year, when the external environment of the policy to be extended or adjusted.
Some friends see that this national policy is to facilitate “foreign citizens of six countries to come to China”, for our domestic people, especially the working class, seems to be “not relevant”.
In fact, behind the relaxation of our “foreign visa” policy, the goal is “high-quality development of foreign exchange services” and “high-quality opening up”.
These two words sound a bit “officialized”, but the data behind it is very real.
This year is the first year of recovery after three years of “reduced external communication”, and we are prepared for a “significant decrease” in the number of foreigners compared to the pre-epidemic period.
And whether from the point of view of national self-improvement or strengthening internal circulation, we seem to be psychologically able to withstand the “small gap” of “reduced external contacts”.
So before I don’t tell you the data, you can guess in your mind how many fewer arrivals our country received this year compared to 2019? How many foreigners are coming to China today as compared to the number before the epidemic?
To be honest, based on what I’ve seen and heard on several trips, as well as discussions with some big v’s in the past, I originally judged that this year’s pace of recovery of foreign contacts was “much lower than expected”, and compared to 2019, the estimated number of people is at most only seventy percent of what it was in the beginning.
However, I checked the first half of this year, as well as the data for July.
In the first half of this year, China received a cumulative total of 10 million arrivals, including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, and just looking at this data, there is no visual comparison, we think the data is quite large.
But in 2019, before the epidemic, China received 340 million arrivals in the first half of the year. In other words, the number of arrivals in the first half of this year is 3% of the 2019 figure, not “half” or “60% pass” as people think, but a staggering 3%.
Breakdown of foreign arrivals, the first half of only 500,000 people, the same period in 2019 foreign arrivals is 14 million people, this year’s data is 4% of the pre-epidemic.
So is it because the first half of this year was the trough of the “epidemic has just been lifted”, and the second half of the year back to normal?
In July this year, China received 1.7 million arrivals, almost one-sixth of the figure for the first half of the year, of which 86,000 foreigners came to China, also one-sixth of the figure for the first half of the year.
This shows that despite the fact that July is the summer peak season for international conferences and outbound travel, there has been no increase in the number of foreigners in China compared to the first half of the year, when the country was in the early stages of recovery from the epidemic.
For some time in the past, some people have discussed the theme of “the decline of foreigners” and deliberately made reference to the “closed-country policy” during the three years of the epidemic.
My point is that no matter how much foreign exchange has been affected over the past three years, it is a price that must be borne compared to our policy of protecting countless human lives.
Moreover, we have all been “psychologically prepared” for a “slowdown” in our recovery due to the aftermath of the “three-year closed-door policy”.
But just because we can afford to see the number of foreign contacts slip from a high point doesn’t mean we can afford to see foreign contacts drop to 3% in 2019. No matter how much we advocate for internal circulation, this foreign data is really a bit “alarming”.
In the past few years, a large number of foreigners have come to China, partly for tourism and sightseeing, but more for business negotiations.
